Forty-four years is a long time in football. When Aston Villa last won the English top-flight title in 1980-81, there was no Premier League, no Champions League as we know it, and mobile phones were the stuff of science fiction. Ron Saunders' side clinched that championship using just 14 players across the entire season โ a feat unimaginable in today's era of squad rotation and fixture congestion. Yet here we are, as 2025 draws to a close, asking a question that seemed absurd just months ago: could Villa actually do it again?
The facts are startling. Unai Emery's side have won 11 consecutive matches in all competitions, equalling a club record that has stood since 1914. They sit third in the Premier League table, just three points behind leaders Arsenal, and head to the Emirates on Tuesday evening with the opportunity to draw level at the summit. For a club that failed to win any of their first five league games this season, the transformation has been nothing short of remarkable.
The Numbers Don't Lie โ Or Do They?
Here's where it gets complicated. Villa's ascent up the table has been built on foundations that data analysts would describe as, at best, precarious. According to expected goals metrics, Emery's side should be languishing in mid-table, not challenging for the title. They've scored 29 goals from just 19.9 xG โ massively overperforming their expected output. Defensively, they've conceded 19 goals against an xGA of 25.4, suggesting good fortune rather than defensive solidity.
No team in Premier League history has sustained such overperformance across an entire season. The numbers suggest regression is inevitable. Villa's underlying creative metrics through the first half of the campaign were more befitting of a team fighting for Europa League qualification than one eyeing the title.
Yet here's the counterargument: Villa have scored more goals from outside the box than any other team in the Premier League this season โ ten, to be precise โ and are on course to break the seasonal record of 23 set by Chelsea in 2006-07. When questioned about this after beating Wolves 1-0 with another long-range effort, Emery was unapologetic. His players practise these shots relentlessly, he explained, and it's become a deliberate tactical weapon.
The Emery Factor
Much has been made of Villa's underlying numbers, but perhaps insufficient attention has been paid to the man orchestrating it all. Unai Emery's managerial CV speaks for itself: four Europa League titles, a Ligue 1 championship with Paris Saint-Germain, and a remarkable run to the Champions League semi-finals with Villarreal on a fraction of their rivals' budgets.
At Villa Park, he has performed alchemy. When Emery arrived in October 2022, the club sat 16th in the table, just one point above the relegation zone under Steven Gerrard. Within 18 months, he had guided them to a fourth-place finish and Champions League qualification โ their first appearance in European football's premier competition since 1982-83.
"Unai Emery is a tactical genius, and I want to say that. He changed our system because Chelsea were playing man-to-man, but they had an extra centre-back when we went long." โ Ollie Watkins
The Spaniard's in-game management has been exceptional. Villa have won five matches this season from losing positions โ including Saturday's dramatic 2-1 victory at Chelsea, where Emery's triple substitution on the hour mark completely transformed the game. Ollie Watkins, introduced from the bench, scored twice in 20 minutes to complete another improbable comeback.
The Star Man: Morgan Rogers
Every title-winning side needs a breakout star, and Villa have found theirs in Morgan Rogers. The 23-year-old attacking midfielder has emerged as one of the most exciting talents in European football, earning comparisons to Jamal Musiala, Ronaldo, and Wayne Rooney for his powerful runs and ability to drive at defenders.
Rogers has contributed seven goals and three assists in the Premier League this season, but statistics only tell half the story. His hat-trick against Celtic in the Champions League โ two goals in the first five minutes โ announced him on the continental stage. He followed that with a stunning winner against West Ham, a speculative effort from distance that carried an xG of just 0.04.
The former Manchester City youth product won the PFA Young Player of the Year award last season and signed a contract extension until 2031 in November, signalling both his importance to the club and his commitment to the project. FourFourTwo recently ranked him as the eighth best attacking midfielder in the world โ heady praise for a player who was on loan at Blackpool just two years ago.
The Historical Precedent
Villa's ambitions are not without historical parallel. Leicester City's extraordinary title triumph in 2015-16 remains the benchmark for footballing miracles, but there are crucial differences. Leicester flew under the radar for much of that season; Villa are now firmly in the spotlight, their every move scrutinised.
The club's last title came in circumstances eerily similar to their current campaign. That 1980-81 side also endured a difficult start before mounting a sustained run of form in the second half of the season. They lost just four league games all campaign, and key results against title rivals Liverpool and Ipswich proved decisive.
Should Villa pull off the improbable, it would be their seventh top-flight championship โ a number that speaks to their historical significance in English football. Villa were founding members of both the Football League in 1888 and the Premier League in 1992. They won the European Cup in 1982, defeating Bayern Munich 1-0 in Rotterdam. This is a club built for glory, even if recent decades have suggested otherwise.
The Obstacles Ahead
For all the optimism, significant hurdles remain. Tuesday's trip to Arsenal is arguably Villa's biggest test of the season. The Gunners have won nine of their last ten home league games and remain favourites for the title despite their own injury concerns. Emery will be without Matty Cash and Boubacar Kamara through suspension, while Pau Torres and Tyrone Mings remain sidelined.
Squad depth is a genuine concern. Villa's starting eleven can compete with anyone, but their options off the bench pale in comparison to Arsenal and Manchester City. The Europa League campaign, while offering a realistic route to silverware, also adds to the fixture burden during the season's crucial second half.
Then there's the small matter of expectations. Villa have never been favourites in this race; they've thrived as the hunters rather than the hunted. If they emerge from the Emirates with all three points, the pressure will intensify exponentially. Can this group handle it?
The Verdict
Can Aston Villa win the Premier League? The honest answer is: probably not. The data suggests their form will regress. Arsenal and Manchester City possess superior squads and championship experience. The margins are too fine, the obstacles too many.
But football exists precisely for moments like this โ for impossible dreams pursued against all odds. Villa's winning streak cannot last forever, but it doesn't need to. If they can maintain their current points-per-game average, they'll finish the season with 86 points. In most years, that's enough to be crowned champions.
Emery himself remains cautious, repeatedly deflecting title talk and insisting his focus is on securing Champions League football. Yet actions speak louder than words. The tactical tweaks, the squad rotation, the emphasis on mental resilience โ these are the hallmarks of a manager preparing for a title race, whether he admits it publicly or not.
One thing is certain: whatever happens in the coming months, this Villa side has already written itself into club folklore. Forty-four years is a long time. But every drought, eventually, must end.