Tottenham Hotspur are in freefall. Since matchday 19, they’ve collected just four points from nine games, the worst tally in the Premier League. They’ve conceded 18 goals and scored 10, a defensive record that screams relegation. Yet, Opta’s data model gives them only a 3.36% chance of going down. The numbers are contradictory, but the form table tells a story that demands attention.

The Numbers Don’t Lie

Tottenham sit 16th in the Premier League, four points above the relegation zone. That’s the good news. The bad news? They’ve won none of their last nine league matches, a run that has seen them slip from mid-table safety into the mire. Their recent 4-1 defeat to Arsenal in the North London derby was the latest in a series of humiliations that have left fans questioning whether this is a team in freefall.

Since matchday 19, Tottenham have the lowest points tally in the league. Four points from nine games is a relegation pace, no matter how you spin it. Nottingham Forest, their closest relegation rivals, have picked up five more points in the same period. The gap may not seem insurmountable, but when you consider the quality of Tottenham’s remaining fixtures—Fulham, Crystal Palace, Chelsea, and Everton—it’s easy to see why the form table is cause for concern.

The Managerial Merry-Go-Round

Thomas Frank’s sacking in December was supposed to be the catalyst for a turnaround. Instead, the appointment of Igor Tudor as interim manager has done little to stem the tide. Tudor, who rescued Strasbourg from relegation in Ligue 1, was brought in to steady the ship, but his impact so far has been minimal. The problem isn’t just tactics—it’s a systemic collapse that starts at the back and extends all the way to the final third.

Tudor’s defensive setup has been porous, with Tottenham conceding 18 goals in their last nine games. That’s nearly two goals per game, a rate that would see them finish with over 70 goals conceded by the end of the season—enough to put them in the relegation zone. The defense, once a strength under Antonio Conte, now looks shaky and uncertain. Cristian Romero, once a rock at the back, has been error-prone, while Micky van de Ven and the rest of the backline have struggled to maintain cohesion.

The Relegation Battle: Who’s Really in Trouble?

Tottenham aren’t the only team in the relegation mix. West Ham United, currently 18th, are five points behind Spurs, while Nottingham Forest are just a point further back. The battle for survival is far from over, but the form table suggests that Tottenham are in more trouble than their league position suggests.

Nottingham Forest have been the form team of the relegation scrap, picking up five more points than Spurs since matchday 19. Their recent wins over Everton and Wolves have given them momentum, while Tottenham’s defeats to Arsenal, Chelsea, and Manchester United have left them looking vulnerable. West Ham, meanwhile, have been inconsistent, but their recent draw with Liverpool shows they can compete with the best.

Tottenham’s remaining fixtures are tough, but not insurmountable. Fulham and Crystal Palace are both beatable, while Chelsea and Everton are winnable games if Tudor can find a way to shore up the defense. The key will be consistency—something Spurs have lacked all season.

The Player Exodus: What Relegation Would Mean

If Tottenham were to go down, the fallout would be seismic. Several key players are out of contract this summer, and relegation would likely see them walk for free. Guglielmo Vicario, Pedro Porro, Destiny Udogie, and Cristian Romero are all in the final year of their contracts, and none would be likely to stay if Spurs were relegated. Micky van de Ven, Kevin Danso, and Djed Spence are also out of contract, while Conor Gallagher, Rodrigo Bentancur, and James Maddison are all potential targets for bigger clubs.

The financial implications of relegation would be severe. Tottenham’s wage bill is one of the highest in the league, and the drop to the Championship would leave them with a significant shortfall. The club would likely have to sell key players to balance the books, further weakening the squad. It’s a vicious cycle that could see Tottenham stuck in the Championship for years.

Can They Turn It Around?

Jermain Defoe, a Tottenham legend, believes they can. “Of course. The games are running out and that’s the reality. So many key players are missing but there’s some long-term ones as well. That’s the worry but I don’t think they’ll go down. They play against Fulham and Crystal Palace, they’re capable of winning those two games,” he said. Defoe’s optimism is shared by some fans, but the numbers tell a different story.

The reality is that Tottenham need to start winning games, and quickly. Their remaining fixtures are tough, but not impossible. If they can pick up wins against Fulham and Crystal Palace, they’ll give themselves a fighting chance. But if they continue to leak goals and fail to find consistency, the form table suggests that relegation is a very real possibility.

Tottenham’s season is hanging by a thread. The form table doesn’t lie—four points from nine games is a relegation pace. The question is, can Igor Tudor turn it around in time? The next few weeks will be crucial.