Five points. Thirty available. Ten opponents still to face. At first glance, Arsenal's position atop the Premier League table appears comfortable — the kind of lead that makes title predictions feel premature only if you are being deliberately cautious. But anyone who has watched this division long enough knows that five points with ten games remaining is not a cushion. It is a prompt. A prompt to the chasing team that the door is still open, and a prompt to the leaders that one bad week — one hamstring, one suspended midfielder, one afternoon where the midfield engine stalls — can collapse everything.
This is where we find ourselves on 8 March 2026. Arsenal sit first on 64 points. Liverpool are five points behind on 59, having won four of their last five league matches and showing the kind of form that, had it arrived three weeks earlier, might have made this a rather different conversation. Between them, these two clubs have contested some of the most compelling football of the season. Now comes the examination that defines legacies.
Why Arsenal Are Favourites
The simplest argument for Arsenal winning the league is also the most compelling: they have been the most consistent side in England across the full arc of the season. Their expected goals differential — currently sitting at +38.4, the highest in the top flight — tells the story of a team that does not just win, but wins in a manner that suggests the result was deserved rather than fortunate. Mikel Arteta's side have been beaten only four times in 28 league games, and two of those defeats came in a difficult September run when injuries to Martin Odegaard disrupted the midfield's rhythm.
Odegaard is now back to his best. That matters enormously. When the Norwegian operates freely — dropping into half-spaces, switching the angle of attack, arriving late into the box — Arsenal are categorically a different side. In the eight games since his return from an ankle complaint, he has registered four goals and six assists. It is the kind of return that makes opposition managers redesign their press, and the fact that Arteta has rotated around him so effectively speaks to a depth of squad that was not available in previous title challenges.
Arsenal's defensive record is equally persuasive. They have conceded just 24 goals this season — four fewer than Liverpool — and David Raya has kept 13 clean sheets. The back four of Ben White, William Saliba, Gabriel Magalhaes and Jurrien Timber has developed a cohesion that feels almost automatic. Saliba, in particular, has been the best centre-back in the Premier League for two seasons running, and the idea of him making a decisive error under pressure seems almost inconceivable given the evidence of the last eighteen months.
Then there is the emotional intelligence of this group. Arsenal were here in 2023, here again in 2024, and both times they ran out of steam or ran out of luck. The players who remain from those near-misses — Saka, White, Gabriel, Odegaard himself — carry something that cannot be coached: the specific hunger of someone who has been close enough to touch something and had it taken away. Arteta has spoken this week about the importance of "finishing what you start." The language is deliberate. His squad knows it.
Liverpool's Route Back In
The case for Liverpool is built on something more immediate: the form they are carrying right now. Since the turn of February, Arne Slot's side have been the best team in England. Their 4-1 dismantling of Manchester City at Anfield in mid-February was not just a statement of intent — it was an exhibition of the kind of high-press, vertical football that makes Liverpool genuinely terrifying on their best days. Mohamed Salah scored twice, Cody Gakpo added a third before half-time, and by the end the scoreline felt almost flattering to City.
Slot has quietly resolved the issues that plagued Liverpool's autumn. The defensive uncertainty that saw them concede 14 goals in seven games between October and November has been addressed through the winter. Ibrahima Konate has returned from injury looking sharper than ever, and the partnership with Virgil van Dijk — now in the final year of his contract, playing as though he has something to prove — has reasserted itself. Liverpool have kept five clean sheets in their last seven league games. That is not coincidence; that is structural repair.
The other factor working in Liverpool's favour is the fixture list. Their remaining schedule, while not easy, includes a greater proportion of home games in the crucial run-in — five of their final ten matches are at Anfield, where they have lost only once all season. Anfield under lights, in April, with the title riding on a result, is one of football's most intense environments. If Liverpool are still within striking distance by Easter, the ground itself becomes an asset.
"We have done this before when nobody believed we could," Slot said after the City win. "We respect Arsenal's position. But we will keep going until the mathematics tell us otherwise."
The mathematics, right now, still offer Liverpool a path. If they win all ten remaining games — admittedly a near-perfect requirement — they would finish on 89 points. Arsenal would need to drop at least six points from their remaining fixtures to be overtaken on goal difference. That scenario requires Liverpool to be flawless and Arsenal to stumble more than once, but it is not impossible. Title races have turned on stranger things.
The Fixture Decider
Both teams have difficult matches remaining, but the distribution of those difficulties matters. Arsenal face three sides in the top six, plus a trip to Old Trafford that, while no longer the fixture it once was, remains capable of disrupting form. Liverpool's toughest assignment is a visit to the Emirates in Gameweek 34 — a match that, depending on the state of the table, could function as a straight title decider.
That Arsenal-Liverpool fixture will dominate the conversation between now and its arrival. But both teams must navigate the weeks before it with discipline. A slip from Arsenal at Wolverhampton — a ground where they have historically struggled — combined with Liverpool winning their home game against Aston Villa in the same week could reduce the gap to two points. Momentum is a real force in football, and it shifts fast at the business end of a season.
| GW | Arsenal Fixture | Liverpool Fixture |
|---|---|---|
| 29 | Arsenal vs Brentford (H) | Liverpool vs Fulham (H) |
| 30 | Wolves vs Arsenal (A) | Liverpool vs Aston Villa (H) |
| 31 | Arsenal vs Tottenham (H) | Everton vs Liverpool (A) |
| 32 | Chelsea vs Arsenal (A) | Liverpool vs Leicester City (H) |
| 33 | Arsenal vs Brighton (H) | Newcastle vs Liverpool (A) |
| 34 | Arsenal vs Liverpool (H) | Arsenal vs Liverpool (A) |
| 35 | Man United vs Arsenal (A) | Liverpool vs Crystal Palace (H) |
| 36 | Arsenal vs Nottm Forest (H) | Bournemouth vs Liverpool (A) |
| 37 | Arsenal vs Man City (H) | Liverpool vs Man United (H) |
| 38 | Ipswich vs Arsenal (A) | Liverpool vs Wolves (H) |
A glance at that fixture list reveals two matches that stand out beyond the head-to-head. Arsenal's home game against Manchester City in Gameweek 37 — if the title is still genuinely in the balance — will be an extraordinary occasion. City have fallen away from their peak of recent years, but they remain capable of producing performances that disrupt any opponent. For Arsenal, winning that match in front of a home crowd who know the stakes could be the moment that seals it. Equally, Liverpool hosting Manchester United in Gameweek 37 should be straightforward on paper, but United under their new manager have shown occasional flashes of resilience that make assumptions dangerous.
What Each Team Must Do
Arsenal's primary obligation is straightforward: do not lose concentration in the matches they are expected to win. Home games against Brentford, Brighton and Nottingham Forest should yield nine points. The Tottenham derby, which arrives at Gameweek 31, will be hostile and tight, but Arsenal's head-to-head record in north London derbies this decade gives them a psychological edge. If Arteta's side go into the direct clash with Liverpool having lost no more than three points from those nine fixtures, they will be extremely difficult to dislodge.
Liverpool's requirement is more demanding. They cannot afford to drop points in the matches they should dominate — Fulham at home, Leicester at home, Crystal Palace at home — while also finding victories on the road at Everton, Newcastle, and Bournemouth. That is a lot to ask. The road fixtures in particular represent a combined points haul of nine that Liverpool will need to claim if they are to maintain the pressure required to force an Arsenal collapse. Slot will know this. It explains the intensity with which Liverpool have been approaching games that, a month ago, might have been managed with rotation in mind.
There is also a fitness dimension that cannot be ignored. Arsenal's squad depth has been tested less severely this season than in previous campaigns — a combination of better injury management and a quieter European exit that freed up recovery time. Liverpool, by contrast, have been active in the Europa League until recently and carry a slightly thinner bench behind their first eleven. If either team suffers a key injury between now and the run-in, the calculus shifts. The midfield areas, in particular, bear watching: both Trent Alexander-Arnold and Thomas Partey have histories of muscular complaints at exactly this point in the calendar.
The Verdict
Arsenal are the favourites, and reasonably so. A five-point lead with ten games remaining, held by a team of their consistency, defensive organisation, and emotional maturity, is not easily surrendered. History suggests that teams in this position with this many games to play retain their advantage roughly 70 per cent of the time. The form figures, the squad depth, the leadership experience, the home record — it all points in one direction.
But Liverpool are not going away. The form they are showing, the belief running through a squad that includes players of the calibre of Salah, Van Dijk and the increasingly influential Alexis Mac Allister, means this race will remain alive until at least Gameweek 34. If Liverpool can close to within two points by the time they travel to the Emirates, the remaining weeks will be among the most compelling in the modern history of the Premier League.
Arsenal's title to lose. Liverpool's race to run. Somewhere around the last week of April, we will know which of those narratives proved correct. For now, there is only the next game, the next three points, the next moment when composure either holds or cracks under the enormous, unrelenting weight of expectation.
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